Overall “Mall vacancy in India”,maintains status-quo at 14.5% | Realty Plus

According to Cushman & Wakefield’s latest Retail reports, the overall #MallVacancy, levels across the top eight India cities remained stagnant at 14.47% in Q2 2014, which was recorded around 0.4 percentage points lower compared to Q1 2014…Amongst the top eight cities, Pune witnessed sharpest decline of 2.5 percentage points due to healthy leasing activity and no new mall supply. Ahmedabad, Chennai and Bengaluru also recorded drops of 0.4 percentage point each due to moderate demand for quality mall spaces from apparels and food and beverages (#F&B) retailers…Hyderabad witnessed a rise of 1.1%, in mall vacancy in the same period.

Q2 2014 saw the addition of 370,000 sq ft of new mall space, which was similar to that received in the previous quarter. The supply comprised of 250,000 sq ft in one mall in NCR and the residual 120,000 sq ft in an operational mall in Kolkata. As many as six new malls planned for Q2 2014 witnessed the deferment to the second half of the year, which together accounted for 2.33 million square feet (msf)…

While three malls measuring 700,000 sf in total were delayed in Bengaluru due to approval delays, slower construction pace in tandem with low leasing led to deferment of one mall each in NCR, Pune and Hyderabad, measuring 700,000 sf, 430,000 sf and 500,000 sf respectively.

Sanjay Dutt, Executive Managing Director, South Asia Cushman & Wakefield, said, “The retail and retail real estate markets are still going through a period of uncertainty. Currently, we are witnessing stagnation in the demand-supply dynamics as mall supply is being deferred and existing vacancies remain more or less stable. Whilst everyone is aware of the huge potential that exists for organised retail in India and domestic and international retailers are keen to expand their presence in the country, they are awaiting the conducive conditions to do so. The real estate sector has been maturing to provide better quality spaces and adopting best practices to cater to retailers needs. However, macroeconomic conditions and not just the sentiments need to improve further to encourage consumer spending and the government needs to address the uncertainty that exists with respect to its policy stand on FDI in retail. The RIET’s for commercial properties post successful listings, would potentially open up for shopping center portfolio listings, giving much needed exit route to the developers & investors. This would encourage shopping centre developers to create much needed quality organized retail space at locations that matter. The overall infrastructure to support retail trade such as transportation and logistics too need to improve substantially for the sector to kick in to its next phase of growth.”

According to C&W, mall rentals remained stable across most cities except Bengaluru, Chennai, Mumbai and Pune where a few micro markets depicted rental variations. In Bengaluru, the sharpest rental decline of 13% was noticed in Mysore Road where lower trade densities impacted rentals adversely. Similarly, Cunningham Road in Bengaluru also witnessed lower demand leading to a 10% dip in rentals. On the other hand, Goregaon in Mumbai witnessed a 10% increase in mall rentals due to healthy demand from retailers. In Pune, Hadapsar also witnessed a positive trend in leasing leading to a 9% uptick in mall rentals. In Chennai, almost all mall micro markets witnessed a rental decline from the last quarter due to weakening demand. The sharpest rental dip of 9% came in Chennai-Western where lack of new mall supply hampered retailer demand for this location. Mall rentals in Hyderabad, Ahmedabad and Kolkata remained stable.

In Pune, JM Road witnessed the highest rental appreciation of 9% due to high demand from fashion and lifestyle retailers. Vashi in Mumbai also witnessed similar rental appreciation due to high interest from apparels and F&B retailers. In Chennai, lack of optimum sized retail spaces led to a 7% decline in main street rentals. Anna Nagar 2nd Avenue in Chennai also witnessed a 7% dip in rentals from last quarter as ongoing infrastructure projects curtailed footfalls. All main streets in NCR, Ahmedabad, Hyderabad and Kolkata recorded stable rentals during this quarter. Vittal Mallaya Road in Bengaluru witnessed a 4% rental drop in wake of dearth of optimum-sized retail spaces and already high rentals commanded by this established main street.

During H1 2014, Bengaluru witnessed no new mall supply; this was primarily owing to the delay in approvals, which led to the deferment of upcoming supply. Meanwhile, the city mall vacancy level registered a dip of 0.4 percentage point and was noted at 7.1% towards the end of Q2 2014 due to the absence of new mall supply and moderate demand from apparels, F&B, footwear and electronics retailers. Although most locations in main streets and mall micro markets recorded stable rental trend this quarter, select main streets and mall micro-markets registered a drop in rentals. Whilst Cunningham Road and Mysore Road mall micro markets witnessed a decline of 10-13% in rentals in the wake of weak trading activity; Bannerghatta Road mall micro market recorded a drop of 3% in order to keep rentals competitive and attract newer brands. Main streets of Brigade Road and Vittal Mallya Road observed a drop of 3-4% in rentals due to limited availability of options with optimum sized floor plates. Going forward, Cunningham Road and Mysore Road mall micro markets may experience further downward pressure on rentals. On the other hand, established main streets such as Indiranagar 100 Feet Road, New BEL Road, Kamanahalli Road and Koramangala 80 Feet Road may witness an upward rental bias owing to healthy enquiries from apparels, F&B, electronics and jewelry brands.

In H1 2014, Chennai did not witness any new shopping malls becoming operational and this led to a marginal decline of 0.4 percentage points in vacancy, which was recorded at 5.9% at the end of this quarter. Cautious sentiments and limited transactions led to a dip in mall rentals across all micro markets. Chennai-Western saw the sharpest decline with a 9% drop owing to the ongoing infrastructure projects, which curtailed footfalls and demand. Amongst main streets, strong demand from jewelry retailers for Usman Road- North and Usman Road- South led to a 4% rental appreciation for these locations. However, no availability of optimum sized floor plates in Cathedral Road-R.K. Salai led to a 7% rental dip for this micro market. Enquiries from jewelry retailers for select main streets near CBD remain high but Anna Nagar-2nd Avenue may witness a negative rental bias due to lack of demand caused by the ongoing metro work. Paucity of quality mall space and low demand may lead to stagnant vacancy levels and rental decline across most micro markets.

The mall stock in Hyderabad remained stable in Q2 2014, with 500,000 sf mall space deferred to the next quarter. Q2 2014 witnessed a rise in vacancy by 1.1 percentage points and was noted at 8.22%. Established main streets such as Himayathnagar, Banjara Hills, Jubilee Hills and Kukatpally witnessed an increase in demand from retailers, belonging to apparels, footwear and F&B categories. In the interim, enquiry level for electronic and apparels brands increased in peripheral locations such as Attapur and Kothapet. Whilst mall and main street rentals remained stable, next quarter the city is likely to witness infusion of 500,000 sf of mall space in Kukatpally micro market, which will put a downward pressure on the rentals.

Kolkata witnessed 120,000 sf of mall supply during the first half of 2014 and the overall city mall vacancy increased marginally by 0.07 percentage points. Limited transactions and moderate demand for retail space was recorded. Owing to lack of availability of quality retail space on main streets, malls witnessed more demand compared to main streets. Central and East locations continued to see majority of the leasing activity in both malls and main streets owing to churn and ready catchment. The first half of 2014 witnessed leasing activity predominantly from the apparels segment but rentals remained stable in both main streets and malls.

The first half of 2014 did not witness the opening of any new malls in Mumbai. Despite no new supply, churn in malls led to overall mall vacancies increasing marginally by 0.06 percentage points to 15.4%. During Q2, healthy demand led to mall rentals at Goregaon and Vashi appreciating 10% and 5% respectively while high vacancy levels in malls in Bhandup resulted in developers reducing rentals by 5% to attract retailers. Limited churn kept mall rentals stable in all other locations of the city. Main streets in Mumbai witnessed vibrant leasing activity with domestic and foreign retailers in the apparels and F&B segments actively expanding their presence at locations like Vashi, Lower Parel, Andheri and Linking Road. Owing to high footfall and thriving retail demand in Vashi, strong interest of retailers led to rentals appreciating by 9%. Mall rentals at select locations such as Lower Parel and Malad could appreciate due to higher demand for quality space. Main streets are also expected to witness improved leasing activity in the coming months. Increasing demand for space in main street locations such as Linking Road, Borivali and Thane could lead to increase in rental values.

Delhi-NCR witnessed one new shopping mall measuring 250,000 sf become operational with 60% occupancy levels in H1 2014. Amidst moderate interest among retailers to foray into new and emerging locations, developers continued with slow pace of construction deferring completion of malls. During Q2 2014, overall mall vacancy was recorded at 13.5%, which is 0.06 percentage points higher due to the influx of new mall space. With balanced demand supply conditions, rentals remained stable across all mall locations.

 

“Consumer-confidence is Back”: How Marketers can seize the Opportunity | by: Harish Bhat | Business Line

Which means people are going to spend more….Here’s how “Marketers” can seize the opportunity..!!

Each quarter, research and measurement company Nielsen publishes the results of a Global Survey of Consumer Confidence…This is perhaps the largest survey of its kind, sampling more than 30,000 consumers online in 60 countries, to understand how confident they are about the future…It also gauges their future spending intentions, which are dependent on such confidence…The results of the latest survey were published by Nielsen a few days ago…What do these findings tell us ?? 

The big news in these latest results is that India has topped the #ConsumerConfidenceIndex…In the previous five consecutive quarters, Indonesia had ranked first, but this time around India is well ahead…This means that Indian consumers are today the most confident and optimistic, in comparison with their counterparts in all 60 countries surveyed worldwide…The equally important news is that India’s consumer confidence score has also increased significantly within the past few months — it now stands at a handsome 128, up from 121 in the previous quarter..

Any score above a baseline of 100 indicates degrees of optimism in the economy… Interestingly, #consumerConfidence, scores in large countries such as the US, the UK, and the UAE — which have strong linkages with the #IndianEconomy — have also increased by 4, 5 and 3 points, respectively, compared with the previous quarter…

India’s consumer confidence score requires some further detailing, to understand how powerful a figure this is. At 128, it is now virtually on par with its pre-slowdown score of 133 during 2007, when the Indian economy had been roaring ahead at a growth rate of more than 8 per cent per year. It is also significantly ahead of the global average, which stands at 97 and which has increased by only one point over the previous quarter…This means that Indian consumers are surging ahead in terms of confidence, compared with historical and global yardsticks…!!

This is surely very good news for Indian marketers…Many #ProductCategories, and Brands are likely to rise on this swelling tide of optimism…But the biggest victories will belong to #Marketers and #Retailers, who leverage this increased consumer confidence most appropriately and powerfully — particularly because such rising confidence comes in the run-up to the busiest shopping season in India, the festivals of Navratri and Diwali….To translate consumer confidence into extreme purchase buoyancy for their brands, companies will need to understand the fundamental reasons why Indian consumers are feeling far more optimistic today; and also what they can do, as smart marketers, to fuel and leverage these factors…!!

Budget Moves :

At the national level, the coming to power of a stable Narendra Modi-led Government with a strong majority and a progressive agenda appears to have impacted Indian consumer confidence very positively. Consumers feel more confident when their Government espouses and drives an agenda for economic growth, which has the potential of spurring future investment and creating new jobs. As the Nielsen report points out – “The annual budget announced by the new Government reveals a positive outlook for business, and we expect this to reflect in consumer sentiment in subsequent quarters as well.” A strong Independence Day address by the Prime Minister on August 15, which emphasises the actions being taken to drive growth, will undoubtedly add further to such consumer optimism..

In addition, tax-paying consumers today feel that they have more disposable income to spend on products they want to buy, because of some specific personal income tax exemptions announced in the recent Budget. The Finance Minister has raised the basic income tax limit from Rs. 2 lakh to Rs. 2.5 lakh for everyone, and from Rs. 2.5 lakh to Rs. 3 lakh for senior citizens. In addition, he has increased the amount eligible for tax exemption under Section 80C and has also enhanced tax deduction on #HomeLoans…

All this means that a tax payer in the 30 per cent tax slab is richer by Rs. 36,000 per year and a tax payer in the 20 per cent tax slab by Rs. 25,000 per year…That is enough additional money for the consumer to buy a new television set, an air-conditioner or several pairs of new clothes for the family, in the season ahead…

What Media says, Matters :

People are generally aware of their own economic state but there is also the additional impact of media on consumer confidence. A CES study undertaken in 2006 (“Impact of Newspapers on Consumer Confidence”) highlights that consumer optimism is impacted not only by economic fundamentals but also by the way these fundamentals are reported in media…

Indian media, over the past few weeks, has generally voiced optimism about the economic policies and measures of the new Government and also about the long-term India growth story. This has also added to the overall positive sentiment…

In this positive landscape, a poor monsoon and continuing high inflation still have the potential to play spoilsport. However, there is no doubt that the number of factors driving an optimistic outlook has gone up sharply over the past few months and this is what has resulted in India topping the global consumer confidence index. And it is also heartening to see that the monsoon, after a shaky start, has revived during July…

What Marketers should Do ?:

How should Indian marketers respond to such growing consumer confidence ? The answer will vary across categories and segments, but here are some initial thoughts for us to consider…

First and foremost, when consumer confidence shows such strong increases after several quarters, there will be significant pent-up demand that suddenly begins expressing itself. If people had put off buying discretionary items such as a new car or two-wheeler or wrist watch for the past couple of years, this is the season when they are likely to consider purchases once again. Therefore, in the months ahead, marketers would do well to focus their energies and investments on discretionary categories which have seen sluggish demand, or even declines in demand, over the past two or three years.

Second, there are a number of useful consumer insights that marketers can tap into, in these times. For instance, many people may wish to indulge their families during the forthcoming festive season, after having been somewhat frugal in the past couple of years.

Also, if consumers can be appropriately reminded of the significant amount they are saving in taxes this year, they may be willing to spend this amount relatively freely, without any undue anxiety or guilt. Savvy marketing can help leverage and own such insights powerfully.

Third, marketers and retailers should consider significantly stepping up investments in driving footfalls and purchase consideration during the busy season ahead. Marketing investments tend to work much better during times of consumer optimism, than during relatively bleak periods.

#Brands, that are the first to occupy consumer mind space in their respective categories are most likely to be the ones to best leverage such positive sentiment…!!

Finally, for brands that target affluent and upper-middle-class consumers, this is absolutely the right time to promote premium products that may be somewhat more expensive but are also far more indulgent. Confident and optimistic consumers generally like to indulge themselves.

Here’s wishing all my fellow marketers good luck, as you begin preparing for an excellent festive season ahead. This year, you should feel greatly encouraged that you have consumer confidence on your side…

“India Retail-Property Market” Overview | by: Vivek Kaul | ET Retail

The Retail #RealEstateMarket, in India has developed steadily over the past decade as the quality of stock improves and local developers realize the importance of Modern #ShoppingCenter Management, such as zoning, branding, marketing and promotions, as well as the all-important strategy of following a pure lease model instead of the earlier practice of divesting units to individual investors… This evolution has led to the creation of a number of high quality shopping mall developments in the major cities of Delhi, Mumbai and Bangalore which have set the benchmark for future retail schemes..

The adoption of rental models (such as revenue-sharing) has provided support to retailers in India seeking to establish themselves in the market, and has also enabled shopping mall developers to attract international and domestic retailers to set up flagship stores…!! 

Retail Real Estate Supply: 20072014 (P) : CBRE Research

In the run-up to the global financial crisis of 2008, around 300 new shopping centers were scheduled to be completed in key cities across India. This pipeline was decimated by the credit crunch, however, leading to a shortage of modern retail estate stock. In 2011, the development pipeline sprung back to life as construction work resumed on a number of projects. At the end of 2013, the supply of modern retail space across the country’s seven largest cities stood at about 54 million sq. ft. Around 70% of this space was in New Delhi, Mumbai and Bangalore…

Leading cities including New Delhi, Mumbai, Bangalore, Pune, Chennai, Hyderabad and Kolkata have all seen a steady rise in retailer enquiries in recent years. Shopping mall rents in prime sub-markets of New Delhi have witnessed growth, while values in high streets have increased in Mumbai, Bangalore and Pune. Transaction activity as well as sizes are expected to increase on the back of an increase in consumer spending and expanding mid-income purchasing power. In Mumbai, premium international brands continue to focus on affluent southern parts of the city; but the lack of quality retail space remains a major challenge to growth. Despite the scarcity of quality supply, most retail chains continue to launch their first Indian store in Mumbai and New Delhi usually in a street shop or mall before expanding elsewhere. Even as domestic big box retailers gradually expand to tier II locations, the major foreign brands remain primarily focused on tier I cities.

New supply is steadily coming on stream in the NCR, and will provide opportunities for retailers to operate in an organized retail environment. High street formats continue to dominate the retail landscape, while most luxury retailers prefer to operate from five star hotels and premium malls. Bangalore has a large quantum of organized retail supply in the pipeline which will provide retailers with further opportunities for expansion..

Amongst #RetailCategories, international #F&B outlets have continued to expand in 2013 both at the fast food and fine dining ends of the market. Luxury retailers remain focused on tier I locations but continue to refine their strategy and product offering for the Indian market, which in selected cases has seen them consolidate and reduce the size of some stores. Fashion and apparel remains a high growth sector and major apparel brands from the US and Europe continue to seek opportunities to enter or expand in major markets across the country, including certain tier II locations…

Lack of Quality Retail Real Estate Impedes Market Entry by Global Retail Giants:

There is approximately 54 million sq. ft. of retail stock in India spread across leading metropolitan cities and their surrounding regions. Even after the steady growth in supply of organized retail space over the past ten years, however, retailers of the size of Ikea often find it challenging to secure space in a prime mall in any of these cities. This is essentially because the majority of retail space developed in India to date lags behind global standards, and does not provide the quality, ambience, design, services or post-construction maintenance that global retailers are accustomed to. This is one reason why out of the more than 300 malls in the country, only a handful can be described as successful retail projects. These include Select CityWalk, DLF Emporio and DLF Promenade in South Delhi, Ambience Mall in Gurgaon, Inorbit and High Street Phoenix in Mumbai, and Forum in Bangalore. The total size of these successful malls is just 45 million sq. ft. About 31% of the upcoming supply addition is expected to be centered in smaller cities such as Pune, Chennai, Hyderabad and Kolkata over 2014, with approximately 1011 million sq. ft. of organized retail supply lined up across leading cities..

According to research estimates, India will require an annual supply of about 20 million sq. ft. of organized retail space in order to sustain growth in the sector. This will necessitate a concerted effort from developers to construct successful shopping centers to global standards. However, domestic developers are still in the middle of a steep learning curve with respect to undertaking shopping center development. Many developers view shopping centers simply as another asset class, no different from building offices or housing units. In fact, shopping centers have an organic and perpetually changing quality that needs to be planned, developed, owned and managed as a single property..

It is in this context that the role of global #RetailChains, such as Tesco and Ikea will be crucial….These retailers possess extensive experience of running successful retail stores and properties in markets like the US, China, Europe, Middle East and South East Asia, with local partners to create successful shopping formats..

By utilizing this knowledge they will be able to help usher in a revolution in the development of organized retail real estate in India..

SEBI fine-tunes “Draft-Regulations” for “Infrastructure Investment Trusts” in India | VCCircle

Leasing of land on which a Hospital or Hotel is located shall not be considered as an “ Infrastructure Project for the purposes of #InvITs”…!!

Securities market regulator #SEBI ( Securities and Exchange Board of India), has come out with more elaborate Draft Regulations for setting up “Infrastructure Investment Trusts (InvITs), which prescribe at least 80 per cent of the corpus to be invested in completed or income generating assets for InvITs issuing public units, strategic investors to bring at least 5 per cent of the amount, InvITs offer size to be at least Rs 250 crore (around $42 million) and that the proposed holding of an InvIT in the underlying assets shall be not less than Rs 500 crore ($83 million)..

This follows a previous consultation note circulated late last year and incorporates the provisions delineated in the Union Budget which provided tax pass-through status to such investment vehicles..SEBI has called for comments on its draft proposals by July 24…

Here are some key points:

InvITs are proposed to provide a suitable structure for financing/refinancing of infrastructure projects in the country..It shall invest in infrastructure projects, either directly or through SPV. In case of PPP projects, such investments shall only be through SPV…

InvITs which propose to invest at least 80 per cent of the value of the assets in the completed and revenue generating infrastructure assets, shall raise funds only through public issue of units and minimum subscription size and trading lot for such InvIT shall be Rs 5 lakh. Rest 20 per cent may be invested in under construction infrastructure projects (subject to maximum of 10 per cent) and other permissible investments. The minimum public float in such issues would be 25 per cent, which is at par with equity issues on the bourses.

These other permissible investments include listed or unlisted debt of companies or body corporate in infrastructure sector (provided that this shall not include any investment made in debt of the SPV); shares of companies listed on a recognised stock exchange in India which derives over 80 per cent of operating income from infrastructure sector; government securities besides money market instruments, liquid mutual funds or cash equivalents..

An InvIT which proposes to invest more than 10 per cent of the value of its assets in under construction infrastructure projects shall necessarily raise funds through private placement from Qualified Institutional Buyers and body corporate and the minimum investment and trading lot for such InvITs shall be of Rs 1 crore. Such InvITs shall mandatorily invest in at least one completed and revenue generating project and not less than one pre- commercial operation date (COD) project. In such InvITs there should be at least five QIBs and a maximum of 1,000 institutional investors holding units.

Listing shall be mandatory for both publicly offered and privately placed InvITs…!!

The InvIT shall refund money to the applicants if it collects subscription of amount less than 75 per cent of the issue size as specified in the final offer document or in the case of public issues less than 20 subscribers buy the units of the InvIT. SEBI has also said the maximum oversubscription amount which can be retained by the InvIT would be capped at 25 per cent over and above the target.,

An InvIT prior to making an offer of units, either through public issue or private placement, may have strategic investors such as banks, international multilateral financial institutions, foreign portfolio investors including sovereign wealth funds, etc., which together invest at least 5 per cent of the size of the InvIT or such amount  as may be specified by SEBI.

An InvIT shall be a trust with parties such as sponsor(s), investment manager, trustee and project manager(s). A trustee can either be a debenture trustee registered with SEBI and not an associate of the sponsor(s)/investment manager; or an associate of the sponsor/investment manager having not less than 50 per cent of its directors as independent and not related parties to the InvIT. However, a trustee of InvIT cannot be trustee to another InvIT or an Alternative Investment Fund engaged in infrastructure sector.

The proposed holding of an InvIT in the underlying assets shall be not less than Rs 500 crore and the offer size of the InvIT shall not be less then Rs 250 crore at the time of initial offer of units.

The aggregate consolidated borrowing of the InvIT and the underlying SPVs shall be capped at 49 per cent of the value of InvIT assets. However, this may exclude any debt infused by the InvIT in the underlying SPV. Further, for any borrowing exceeding 25 per cent of the value of InvIT assets, requirement of credit rating and unit holders approval has been made mandatory.

SEBI has said leasing of land or building on which a hospital or hotel is located shall not be considered as an infrastructure project for the purposes of InvITs but if revenues are generated from operation and management of a hospital or hotel, then the same shall be considered as infrastructure project under these regulations.

If the sponsor of the InvIT is a developer it needs to have at least two projects which have achieved financial closure…

It calls for the investment manager to have net worth of at least Rs 5 crore if it is a body corporate or a company or net tangible assets of value not less than Rs 5 crore in case the it is a Limited Liability Partnership..

It should have at least five years experience in #FundManagement/#AdvisoryServices/development in the #InfrastructureSector and have at least two employees with five years or more experience each, in fund management/advisory services/development in the infrastructure sector; at least one employee who has five years of experience in the relevant sub-sector(s) in which the InvIT has invested or proposes to invest; an office in India from where the operations pertaining to the InvIT is proposed to be conducted…!!

“Indian Consumption Pie”: “Food to stay No.1” item on Family-shopping List | by: Abheek Singhi | Livemint

“Food will remain the Largest Spend Category” even in 2020 with spending of Rs.40 trillion, followed very closely by “Housing & Consumer Durable” with spending of Rs.35 trillion..!!

Most Indians, even those with incomes of $3,000 (around Rs.1.8 lakh) per-annum OR Lower, consume basic products such as cooking oil, bathing soap, washing powder, and tea. But, as they get richer, they start to purchase durable goods, with the typical hierarchy being TV and cooking gas as the top focus..

Ten years ago, Rakesh Sahu, who runs a small restaurant on the outskirts of Lucknow, ate cheap rice, avoiding fruits because of the cost involved. Now, he buys branded refined oil, basmati rice, and eats all the fruits and vegetables he wants because he can afford the extra spending…

photo

“I don’t think twice before buying good food for my family today”, says Sahu, whose income has increased more than five times in the past 10 years from Rs.90,000 per year to Rs.5 lakh now…!!

He used to get clothes stitched for the family for special occasions earlier. These days, he buys ready-made garments —though he does not spend extra for brand names..

The amount Sahu spends on consumer goods and what he chooses to spend his money on fit into a pattern that has accompanied rising incomes in India. The aggregate consumer expenditure is likely to increase from Rs.45 trillion in 2010 to nearly Rs.150 trillion by 2020—an over-threefold jump in a decade..

Sahu, for instance, does care about brands in the durables space. His television set is an LG, which he bought after watching a programme on a neighbour’s LG. He has moved his son from a government school to the City Montessori School—an English-medium private school. “I want my son to have the best education possible”.

Where once he had no money for “Leisure or Entertainment” (discretionary spending), Sahu now takes his wife out for an occasional movie and even the spot of jewellery shopping…

We analysed consumer spending across different categories and how it is expected to change with rises in income levels and over time. Today, the No.1 item on the family shopping list is food, accounting for nearly one-third of the total consumer spending. Second on consumers’ spending list is housing and household appliances, closely followed by transport and communication..

Interestingly, the spending across different income segments is quite different and has changed with time…!!

To monitor this transition, we use a tool we call consumption curves. This helps us establish how consumers change their spending habits as they earn more. Different types of products have differently shaped curves—and this demonstrates that consumer demand for different products and categories changes at varying rates..

For items such as #Household goods, the consumption curve is an upward line, indicating a steady rise in spending as incomes rise. Other #ConsumerCategories, that rise steadily, if less steeply than Household Goods, are Transport and Communication, as well as #Education..

Expenditure on “Health”, another Major Category, only really starts to rise as people enter the upper-middle OR affluent classes, with only the tail-end of the Consumption curve bending upwards. By contrast, the #ConsumptionCurve, for Food..follows a gentler trajectory, and “actually flattens out as people get richer”… You can only spend so much and consume only so many calories…!!

Exhibit 1: shows the consumption curves for broad categories across different countries for the three different types of curves for Household-goods, #Health-care and Food. We find that the consumer off-take pattern changes with increase in income—even within the same broad category.

Exhibit 2: show the three patterns observed in India. The first type of increase is “inflection point”—observed in the mass #FMCG (fast moving consumer goods),categories such as Tooth-paste—which also have low-cost substitutes such as Tooth-powder..

In this situation, category consumption changes dramatically as the consumer enters the middle class and then remains largely flat…!!

The second pattern is “continuous growth”, which holds true for most durable goods and more premium FMCGs. Here, the consumption increases steadily with increases in income. The third pattern is “stable with income”, observed in highly penetrated FMCG categories such as biscuits and vanaspati..

In this case, the level of penetration is not significantly different across income segments…

Our research indicates that as people enter the #Middle-class, they switch their focus to Consumer-goods that enhance their quality of life Far-beyond subsistence..

Most Indians, even those with incomes of $3,000 (around Rs.1.8 lakh) per annum OR lower, consume basic products such as cooking oil, bathing soap, washing powder, and tea. But, as they get richer, they start to purchase durable goods, with the typical hierarchy being TV and cooking gas as the top focus..

Beyond this, they prioritize goods and services relating to the family, especially children…

We have calculated that 37% of the middle class household’s expenditure is devoted to children, mainly their food and education…One young couple we met in Mumbai, earning about Rs.15,000 per month and living in a one-room chawl, spends nearly Rs.1,000 per month on the school fees for their only daughter. “We want the very best we can afford for her,” they explained…!!

We have estimated how the shape of consumption is likely to change for India in the future, based on the consumption curves from 2010 to 2020…Food will remain the largest spend category even in 2020 with spending of Rs.40 trillion, followed very closely by housing and consumer durable with spending of Rs.35 trillion.

The fastest growing categories are related to “Education, Entertainment & Leisure”, increasing more than FOUR Times in the 10-year period…!!

It seems clear that Both the Size & Shape of Consumption is going to undergo dramatic changes going forward…!!

“Rakesh Jhunjhunwala betting Highly on Retail”: “BCG expects sector to grow” to $200 bn in 5-7 years | Business-standard

India’s Billionaire-investor Rakesh Jhunjhunwala’s, optimistic outlook on India’s Consumption-sector sent Retail Sector stocks soaring on Tuesday(25th June, 2014)…

Addressing Chief Executives from Retail and Consumer companies at the Confederation of Indian Industry’s Retail & FMCG summit on Tuesday, Jhunjhunwala said retail stocks hadn’t done well over the past-decade but he expected this year to be different, as Higher Income-Levels (Discretionary spending power would increase) would ensure better growth for these companies…

Looking ahead, he said he remained optimistic of the government’s effort to put the economy back on track….Once there is a semblance of growth, Funds should be pouring money into the Retail sector, he said…!!

Jhunjhunwala said companies in the Sector (domestic discretionary consumption)were perfectly positioned to ride a wave of growth in the Indian consumer-industry…..” The opportunity (in retail) is going to be there for a good period of time. The competitive incentive is going to go up,” he said at the opening session of the summit…

Jhunjhunwala also believes implementation of the long-debated Goods and Services Tax (GST) will provide a much needed boost to the consumer goods sector, currently witnessing a slowdown, given the slacking pace of the economy….“GST is one advantage that will come to the (consumer) business in two years….I think, in general, it is going to make India more tax-compliant,” he said….!!

Successful Retailing models, from the Food & Grocery sectors to Footwear and Lifestyle products, have done exceedingly well on the stock markets and given very high returns to investors, he said..

On the future of retailing in India, Jhunjhunwala said he was in awe of the D-Mart (chain of hypermarket and supermarkets in India, started by R K Damani). business model, where the company owned a majority of the outlets and had pledged to sell all products five per cent below the maximum retail price. “D-Mart today has 75 shops, the turnover is about Rs 4,000 crore and is growing at about 25 per cent a year. He has set up a model. I think if you want to learn, you must study D-Mart,” he added.

The Boston Consulting Group’s report on retailing, issued at the summit, expects the sector in India to grow from the present $40 billion to $200 bn in the next Five to Seven years, as India’s consumption story remains robust….Retail models, especially in the food and lifestyle segments, have done exceedingly well and given high returns to investors…

The report has covered 45 Retail and Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) companies. ..2014 will be a good year for retailing in India, as income levels have increased for much of the population…. Availability of a wide range of brands, from luxury goods to basic private label products, gave consumers more options to choose from and also boosted awareness of particular brands and products…

The FMCG sector has been annually growing at a consistent 11 per cent. This has been largely driven by steady growth in demand from consumers, who now have an array of brands to choose from. In the past five years, the growth had accelerated to 17 per cent. Though this had slowed in the past few quarters, India’s long-term consumer story remains intact. “FMCG is typically the last sector to slow down,” said ITC’s executive director for FMCG businesses, Kurush Grant. Over the past year, FMCG has also come under pressure and, hence, what is needed by the industry is to think about reviving itself, Grant said, adding recovery here will be faster than other sectors. Growing demand and rising incomes will continue to drive demand for lifestyle and FMCG products…

The BCG report highlights the need for and approach to how an integrated top-down effort to drive successful transformation can be undertaken in the FMCG and retail sectors..

There is a need to understand the consumer better and the last-mile connectivity distribution infrastructure and capabilities are critical to achieving success for FMCG businesses, it said…

“Narendra Modi effect”: “Clutch of VC & PE funds” out to raise $2 billion | The Economic Times

More than half-a-dozen VC & PE Funds, are set to start the process to raise a combined $2 billion (about Rs 12,000 crore) from foreign and local investors, riding on the #BullishSentiment the change in Government has brought to the market…!!

At least FOUR established PE Funds have begun talks with investors while three have revived previously shelved plans, said people with knowledge of the matter and fund managers…

Arth Capital and Exponentia Capital are among the funds that have brought back plans that had been put on the back burner. ” We have a commitment of $150 million now and would raise up to $500 million for our infrastructure fund,” said a person with direct knowledge of the ICICI Venture fund’s plans.

ICICI Venture, India’s second largest PE fund, is betting on the infrastructure sector, which is high on the investment agenda of the Narendra Modi government to kick-start the economy…” There is a huge equity requirement for infrastructure projects,” this person said…!!

Narendra Modi Effect: clutch of PE funds out to raise $2 billion

Investor sentiment towards India had soured in recent years as economic growth slowed to less than 5% in fiscal 2013 and 2014 from over 8% in 2007. PE funds that have invested more than $50 billion in the past decade couldn’t exit their holdings as company valuations took a dive.

With returns from PEs drying up, limited partners (LPs), who commit money to these funds, stopped making new investments, delaying closure of new funds.

Though those concerns have now eased as the window for public offers opened again, industry experts say fund-raising will still be challenging for those who don’t have a good track record, quality and team continuity.

” VC & PE funds which demonstrate these parameters will have an edge over others,” said Vikram Utamsingh, managing director of transactions advisory group at Alvarez and Marsal. “LPs have been negative as the India story had been dampened for the past four years, but post national elections they are turning positive.”

According to him, investors are watching how the government will improve the investment climate. “There have been lots of enquiries from investors,” Utamsingh added..

Everstone, owned by former Mckinsey consultant Sameer Sain and partner Atul Kapur, is planning to raise around $750 million, its third fund. They have already made investments from two funds, focusing on companies in sectors such as consumption, infrastructure, real estate and financial services. Between 2006 and 2011, Everstone raised $975 million, closing the first fund of $425 million in September 2006 and second in May 2011 after raising $550 million. The last fund invested in 11 companies, including Hinduja LeylandBSE -1.51 % Finance, Burger King and Indostar Capital Finance, a non-bank finance company..

” We will raise the third fund by the end of the year only. It’s too early for us,” said a spokesperson. ” Typically, PEs raise funds once they have invested close to 80% of the money which is usually threefour years from the time they raise the fund,” said Utamsingh.

Some funds have received commitments from their main investors, or anchor investors. Multiples, owned by former ICICI Venture head Renuka Ramnath, has received a commitment from Canadian Pension Fund (CPF) for $100 million, as it plans to raise $500 million in its second fund. CPF had invested $80 million in the previous fund…!!

Exponentia Capital of PR Srinivasan, former head of Citigroup PE fund, has revived its plan to raise $250 million. “Fund-raising should accelerate as PE funds successfully exit from some of their investments in the past five years and return capital,” Srinivasan said…But some fund managers say fund closure will take longer…!!

” Though the stock markets have run up much faster, limited partners will take a longer time to react,” said Sumit Chandwani, managing partner of Arth Capital that has revived plans to raise $200 million…

“We could be closing the fund in the next 6-12 months,” said Chandwani, who had worked at ICICI Venture for 12 years before starting his own fund….!!